Does Running Alpha Agree with the Equity Bears?
The bears are somewhat right in that markets do not grow to the sky forever — they are just off by a few years, perhaps even 5. The reason the bears cannot see, with any confidence, the bull market re-igniting itself as early as this Q3/Q4 is that they focus on looking at the averages, and averages fail to account for the quantum details of the evolving stock compositions that make up the indices.
Averages are not what drive the averages upward; it is the synchronization and resonance of the decision-makers that comprise the most connected equities across the most important industry groups.
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